Nate Diaz vs Gary Maynard Fight Prediction – Fight Night 20

GRAY MAYNARD vs. NATE DIAZ

 Fight Overview:  A rematch from The Ultimate Fighter Season 5, where Diaz choked out a relatively green Maynard early in the second round.  Maynard has come a long way, but Diaz is still a dangerous fighter with more experience.

 Maynard’s Strengths:  Maynard’s best attribute is clearly his wrestling.  He has great takedowns from the clinch as well as great shots, and is very good at maintaining top position and shutting down opponents’ offense.  In addition, he has good power in the standup game and can string together nice combos with his hands.

 Maynard’s Weaknesses:  Maynard hasn’t shown many weaknesses, but his submission defense is a question mark.  In his first fight with Diaz he was submitted relatively easily, and while he has defeated some proficient grapplers since then, he hasn’t faced anyone with Diaz’s abilities since.

 Diaz’s Strengths:  Diaz has an excellent submission game, excellent submission defense, and great sweeps.  He also has unorthodox but accurate and rapid-fire boxing which can really put opponents off their game.

 Diaz’s Weaknesses:  Diaz’s biggest weakness is his inability to deal with opponents who can dictate the pace on the ground.  Against dominant wrestlers he has shown a tendency to get shut down in bottom position on the ground.  He also lacks fight-ending power in the standup.

 The Verdict:  Despite Diaz’s previous win, the edge here goes to Gray Maynard.  The two are about equal on the feet, technically, but Maynard has far more power.  The most important thing, though, is that Maynard’s vastly superior wrestling means that when and if this fight hits the mat, it will be on Maynard’s terms.  That should be enough to get Maynard the decision nod.

 Prediction: Gray Maynard by unanimous decision.