UFC 123 – BJ Penn vs. Matt Hughes 3 Prediction

Fight Overview:  A big rubber match between Penn and Hughes, two former Welterweight champs.  Penn took the title from Hughes in a huge 2004 upset, but Hughes got revenge in their 2006 rematch, stopping Penn via TKO after he suffered a rib injury.

Hughes’ Strengths:  Hughes has very dominant wrestling, great top control and ground and pound, and extremely underrated submissions.

Hughes’ Weaknesses:  He has a very short reach and not much power in his hands.

Penn’s Strengths:  Penn has excellent submissions, excellent boxing, and some of the best takedown defense in the world.

Penn’s Weaknesses:  His conditioning and motivation to fight are never sure things, especially coming off two straight losses, and he doesn’t have much in the way of offensive wrestling.

The Verdict:  If Penn doesn’t show up in great shape and with his head on straight, he is going to have a long night ahead of him.  If he does, though, he has more than enough tools in his belt to frustrate Hughes on the feet, stuff his takedowns, and control this fight.  I think the fact that he is coming off two losses in a row and the fact that this a big rubber match should be more than enough to keep Penn motivated, though.  Penn by unanimous decision.

Fight Prediction:  BJ Penn by Unanimous Decision.