Frank Mir vs. Shane Carwin Fight Prediction – UFC 111

FRANK MIR vs. SHANE CARWIN

Fight Overview:  Former champion Frank Mir, fresh off a dominating performance at Cheick Kongo, will look to secure a rubber match with Brock Lesnar against undefeated top contender Shane Carwin.  Mir has more experience and is the better-rounded of the two, but Carwin is a dominant physical force who has the power to finish anyone.

Mir's Strengths:  Mir has some of the best jiu-jitsu in the Heavyweight division and very heavy hands, both standing and from top position.

Mir's Weaknesses:  Although he is great on the ground, Mir's takedowns and wrestling aren't very good.  His chin is also slightly suspect.

Carwin's Strengths:  Carwin is a huge, strong fighter with very heavy hands.  He also presumably has good wrestling, although he hasn't shown it off much.

Carwin's Weaknesses:  Carwin's submission defense is a huge question mark, and he has never fought anyone as good on the ground or as well-rounded as Mir.

The Verdict:  Carwin is a huge guy with a lot of finishing power, but it's hard for someone with so little top-level experience to beat a guy as well-rounded as Mir.  Carwin beat Gonzaga, but he was in big trouble in that fight, and Mir is like a more dangerous and complete version of Gonzaga.  Carwin is going to be very aggressive, and it is going to cost him, as he will get caught standing, clipped, and choked out.

Fight Prediction:  Frank Mir by third round rear naked choke.