Antonio Minotauro Nogueira vs. Cain Velasquez Fight Prediction – UFC 110
CAIN VELASQUEZ vs. ANTONIO RODRIGO NOGUEIRA
Fight Overview: Cain Velasquez, the undefeated prospect who has shown superhuman wrestling and ground and pound, will face the toughest test of his career in the form of former PRIDE and UFC Interim Heavyweight Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. This is a matchup of power vs. technique, youth vs. experience.
Velasquez’s Strengths: Velasquez has seemingly unstoppable takedowns, smothering top control, and a very active top game with vicious, fight ending ground and pound. He also has a lot of power in his punches on the feet.
Velasquez’s Weaknesses: While he hasn’t shown any real weaknesses yet, Nogueira is a step up in competition for him, and his submission defense has never been tested at all, something Nogueira is more than capable of doing.
Nogueira’s Strengths: Nogueira has the best jiu-jitsu in the Heavyweight division, and has proven it over and over again. He also has very technical and underrated boxing, great cardio, and an iron chin.
Nogueira’s Weaknesses: Nogueira’s wrestling is nowhere near Velasquez’s level, and he is getting up there in years and has taken a number of vicious beatings, even in fights he won, so the potential for slowdown is ever-present, especially after his lethargic performance against Frank Mir, although that was likely due to a staph infection.
The Verdict: On paper, this is as even as a fight could be. On the feet, Nogueira has more technique and experience, but Velasquez has more power. Velasquez clearly has a huge edge in wrestling, but Nogueira has an equally huge edge in the submission game. If I absolutely had to pick a winner, I guess I would go with Velasquez, just because he has more potential to end the fight standing and a better chance of controlling the fight on the ground. Like I said, though, this is a very even fight, which is why most of the betting sites have it as a wash, with both guys around -110 or so. Sportsbook.com, however, has Nogueira listed as a +105 underdog, and considering his years-long record of submitting guys with more proven submission defense than Velasquez, I think those are odds that are well worth taking.
Fight Prediction: Cain Velasquez by second round T/KO.
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