Matt Serra vs. Frank Trigg Fight Prediction – UFC 109

MATT SERRA vs. FRANK TRIGG

 Fight Overview:  Two long-time veterans finally collide on the back end of their respective careers.  Neither has many fights left in them, so a win here could be important for either man to cement his legacy.

 Trigg’s Strengths:  Trigg is very well-rounded, with good boxing and a very solid and underrated wrestling game.  He will also have a sizable height and reach advantage over Serra.

 Trigg’s Weaknesses:  Trigg has shown an inability to deal with opponents he can’t outgrapple.  Guys he can’t dictate the pace to on the ground have traditionally run all over him and exploited his questionable submission defense.

 Serra’s Strengths:  Serra’s most obvious strength is his incredibly effective jiu jitsu.  He is a threat to submit anyone from any position.  His striking is not world-class, but is deceptively effective and tends to catch opponents off guard.

 Serra’s Weaknesses:  Serra’s biggest weakness, especially against a rangy fighter like Trigg, is his extremely short reach.  To get into punching range, he will have to wade through Trigg’s superior reach, which could prove problematic.

 The Verdict:  Serra takes this one.  Trigg is very skilled, but the biggest gap in skill between the two men is on the ground, where Serra is leaps and bounds better.  This should be a competitive fight, but eventually Serra will find a way to exploit Trigg’s holes on the ground and secure a rear naked choke.

 Prediction: Matt "The Terror" Serra by second round rear naked choke.

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