BJ Penn vs. Diego Sanchez Fight Prediction – UFC 107

BJ PENN vs. DIEGO SANCHEZ

 

Fight Overview:  Lightweight Champion BJ Penn defends his strap against Diego Sanchez, newly arrived from the Welterweight division.  Diego is well-rounded and aggressive, but Penn came by his “Prodigy” nickname honestly.

 

Sanchez’s Strengths:  Sanchez’s wrestling is good, he throws hard punches, has good cardio, decent submissions and good submission defense.  Not only that, he puts his game together well and constantly keeps pressure on opponents, be it standing, with takedown attempts, or on the ground.

 

Sanchez’s Weaknesses:  While he does hit fairly hard, Sanchez has awkward boxing and questionable defense, plus he holds his chin out, not a good idea against a guy with Penn’s power and accuracy.  He also seems to have been somewhat weakened by his cut to Lightweight, which took away a bit of his explosiveness and, it would seem, his ability to finish fights.

 

Penn’s Strengths:  Penn is very naturally talented, has arguably the most impressive jiu-jitsu credentials of any fighter in the UFC, and is probably the best boxer in the Lightweight division.  He is also very flexible and athletic, and has some of the best takedown defense in the world.

 

Penn’s Weaknesses:  Historically, Penn’s weakness has always been his cardio conditioning.  He has recently hired a serious strength and conditioning coach, and while his cardio did look better in his last fight, it remains to be seen how he will respond to the kind of physicality and pressure Sanchez will bring.

 

Prediction:  BJ Penn is just too good for Diego.  While Diego is a good wrestler, Penn’s takedown defense is nearly impenetrable as long as his cardio holds up.  On the feet, Penn has a huge advantage in technique and power, and that is where he will win the fight.  Sanchez will struggle to take Penn down the whole fight, and eventually he will get dropped with punches and finished on the ground.