Frank Mir vs. Cheick Kongo Fight Prediction – UFC 107

FRANK MIR vs. CHEICK KONGO

 

Fight Overview:  A big Heavyweight matchup pitting a dangerous grappler against a dangerous kickboxer.  Mir, a former champion, saw his title hopes dashed by Brock Lesnar and is hungry to get another shot, while Kongo is also coming off a loss to dominant wrestler Cain Velasquez that set his title hopes back as well.

 

Mir’s Strengths:  Mir’s Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu is extremely good, and unlike most heavyweights he is just as comfortable working off his back as he is from top position.  He has also developed a heavy-handed, accurate boxing game that makes him very well-rounded.

 

 Mir’s Weaknesses:  After suffering a near-fatal motorcycle crash, Mir had to undergo multiple surgeries to ever be able to fight again.  While he has recovered nicely, his knees are not what they used to be, and he was never an excellent wrestler to begin with.  Since his best work is easily on the ground, his lack of a solid takedown attack is very troublesome.

 

Kongo’s Strengths:  Kongo’s kickboxing is dynamic and powerful, and he can hurt opponents with punches, kicks, and knees, something Mir is not able to do.  He has also shown an ability to do a lot of damage on the ground, but only from top position.

 

Kongo’s Weaknesses:  Kongo’s submission defense has never been severely tested, but his takedown defense has been, and it did not pass.  Mir is nowhere near the wrestler Velasquez is, but Kongo has no chance of winning if he can’t keep the fight standing, so he is going to have to work on his clinch work and his sprawls.

 

Prediction:  I just don’t think Mir’s wrestling is good enough for him to win this fight.  He is overmatched on the feet pretty clearly, and his lack of top-level wrestling and his uncooperative knees are going to spell disaster for him in this fight.  He will get his licks in and struggle to take Kongo down, but ultimately Kongo will catch him on the feet for the T/KO.