Kenny Florian vs Clay Guida Fight Prediction – UFC 107

KENNY FLORIAN vs. CLAY GUIDA

 

Fight Overview:  One of the UFC’s most popular lightweights, Clay Guida, gets his toughest test to date in the form of title challenger Kenny Florian.  Guida is a spark plug with awesome wrestling and top control, but Florian is one of the most versatile and accomplished fighters in the division, so this is going to be a very competitive affair.

 

Guida’s Strengths:  Guida’s wrestling is extremely good, and once he gets opponents down he is very good at holding them there and also at doing damage from top position.  He also has extremely good cardio, which allows him to be ruthlessly aggressive from bell to bell.

 

Guida’s Weaknesses:  The biggest holes in Guida’s game are his subpar standup and his lack of effective submissions.  While he finished a lot of fights by submission early in his career, he has never submitted a credible opponent, which means that on the ground his opponents only have to defend strikes.  He is pretty much inept on his feet, which makes his takedowns easy to see coming.

 

Florian’s Strengths:  Florian is ridiculously well-rounded.  His jiu-jitsu has always been top notch, and his striking, once fairly rudimentary, has become top-notch.  He has an excellent thai clinch and legendarily dangerous elbows.

 

Florian’s Weaknesses:  It’s hard to point out any weaknesses in Florian’s game when he has defeated so many top opponents and held his own with the best Welterweights in the world.  Against Sean Sherk, he was taken down numerous times, so his takedown defense could become an issue against a wrestler as determined as Guida.

 

Prediction:  Florian is just too well-rounded for Guida.  Guida is going to have a very hard time getting Florian down, because he will not be able to stand with Florian to set up his shots.  On the feet he is woefully outmatched, and I expect Florian to smack him around for three rounds in a one-sided bout.