Matt Hamill vs Jon Jones Fight Prediction – TUF 10

MATT HAMILL vs. JON JONES

Fight Overview:  Two powerful guys with extensive amateur wrestling backgrounds will collide.  Hamill is a proven competitor at 205, and Jones, an undefeated prospect, is a potential future title challenger.  Hamill is his toughest test so far, though, so this should establish just how far along he is.

Hamill’s Strengths:  Hamill’s most obvious strength is his powerful wrestling and top control, but he also has excellent cardio conditioning, a solid chin, and a lot of heart.  He is also one of the most aggressive wrestlers in UFC, which helps make his opponents less sure of themselves.

Hamill’s Weaknesses:  Hamill’s only real weakness is his one-dimensionality.  His standup is not completely awful, but he relies very heavily on his wrestling.  Most of the times, his opponents can’t stop his takedowns even though they know they are coming, but against a powerful wrestler like Jones the way he telegraphs shots might hurt him.

Jones’ Strengths:  Jones, for such a raw fighter, has a lot of strengths.  He is physically huge and very strong, his striking is pretty good, and his wrestling is excellent.  Furthermore, he has gone the distance multiple times and his cardio has held up well, which should be a tremendous help against a relentless wrestler like Hamill.

Jones’ Weaknesses:  Jones’ weaknesses are hard to identify.  Surely he has a few, but thusfar he has looked very good every time he has stepped up in competition, and has yet to show any crippling holes in his game.  One notable concern is his lack of technique, and his tendency to rely on his size and strength, but against Hamill that will likely not be an issue, as this will be a physical battle of attrition more than a contest of skill.

Prediction:  Jones just has too much for Hamill, in the end.  Hamill has more heart than most fighters, but heart just can’t make up for a size advantage, a strength advantage, and a stylistic advantage.  Hamill will fight bravely, but Jones will control this one and earn a decision.